Poll shows (kinda sorta) increased support for public option.

The WashingtonPost.com ran an article today about a poll that shows increased public support for a public option in the health care overhaul debate. Seniors and independents raised support for the infamous public option to a spellbinding 57%. Of course, there are a few caveats that will not fit into a headline or sound bite.

First, the public option has to be administered by the states, not the federal government. Second, only people without access to affordable private or employer provided plans can participate in the public option. Since the public option provisions all call for federal subsidies as "seed money" I doubt that the states will really run these programs. Too many state administered programs are vying for federal funds and subsidies as it is, what will be different about this one?

And now for the $64,000 question. What is affordable insurance? It will probably be a percentage of annual income. But what percent is a very big and very loaded question.

My prediction is if the public option is voted into law, these provisions will not be respected by congress. Congress will get its way on a short term basis and find themselves facing another republican or better yet independent revolution in 2010 or 2012 at the latest.

Health care math

The Congressional Budget Office announced that the Senate finance committee's bill will cost $829 billion over the next 10 years while generating revenue of $911 billion over the next 10 years. The revenue will be from taxes, fees and penalties in the proposed legislation. This will result in a net deficit reduction of $81 billion. When I subtract $911 billion from $829 billion I get $82 billion. But I am not going to make a big deal of this, I'll attribute it to rounding down. What I do want to rant about is some of the assumptions used here. First, the CBO uses the estimates of the bill for the Cadillac tax, a tax on high cost health insurance plans. Many members of congress have labeled the insurance industry as profit motivated to the point of greed and avarice. (This is a vampire calling a mosquito a blood sucking fiend) What makes anybody think the insurers will not cut back on selling these plans and pass on the tax cost to the buyers who still purchase these Cadillac plans?
The CBO is the same agency that said on July 16,2009 that none of the proposed health care bills would do anything to bring down the curve in health care costs. See my earlier post on the same day for details. In less than 4 months a complete reversal in the impact of health care bills occurred? Wow, I'm impressed.(more sarcasm) Anyone who has suffered the mental torture of an economics class and can still remember any of it will tell you economists always add the caveat "all other things being equal" to anything they say. In real life this does not work, so I doubt that the $81 billion dollar savings will survive the next 10 years.
And another point, this is still proposed legislation, the finance committee will vote on it tomorrow then the process starts over again trying to get the bill signed by the Senate and then it will go to the house of reps. Remember what our wildcat house speaker Nancy Pelosi said? A health care bill will not pass the house without a public option. Let's hope Ms. Pelosi can adjust to the fact that most Americans do not want more government, especially government selling health insurance. More to come as this saga unfolds.

Good Grief, Barack Obama!!

With apologies to the Charles Schulz estate and peanuts fans everywhere, how else can I put it? Friday a week ago, the IOC awarded the 2016 Olympic games to Rio De Janeiro over Chicago. Big shock to the media since there was a "Dream Team" lobbying for Chicago as the host city. Yesterday, President Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize. Another big surprise. The Nobel committee said Obama's promise of nuclear disarmament and diplomacy were the virtues that influenced their vote. I only have one problem with this. The nomination deadline was February 1, 2009. Mr. Obama was sworn in as President January 20, 2009. He won the presidential campaign November 4, 2008. He did not have very much time to turn his potential into acts. The combination of this nomination with Al Gore's Nobel Peace Prize for unfounded and bad science makes me lose faith in the Nobel Prize Committee.

A few random rants and thoughts

One trend that disturbs me is health care overhaul zealots blaming opposition to obamacare on racism. This is not only absurd but completely unfounded by facts. Mr. Obama got 96% of the black vote. Big deal, so what. Even 100% of a minority is still a minority. Mr. Obama got elected President of the USA by not only black people, but white, hispanic & asian people as well. The only people using race as an issue are the Charley Rangels of the world. He told a predominantly black audience in his district over the august congressional recess that opponents to obamacare and the public option just could not accept the fact that a black man was the President of the USA. Mr. Rangel was probably just "playing the audience" to rally support for the misnamed public option. Again, do the math. Mr Obama was elected POTUS by 52% of all the American Voters.
People that say no other president has received so much criticism have not been in the USA very long or have the memory spans of a very brain damaged fruit fly. Criticism is part of the job for any president. To his credit, Mr. Obama has recognized this fact. Now if he will just recognize the fact that he has over 3 years to improve, not tear down the USA's health care system he will accomplish more than he could with his current strategies.

Olympic Committee follows Obama's words

Just one comment on the IOC appointment of Rio De Janeiro as the host city for 2016 Olympic games. Remember Joe the Plumber from the 2008 presidential campaign? Mr. Obama told Joe he "wanted to spread the wealth." The IOC decided to do just that and awarded Rio the 2016 Olympic games. As Brazil's president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva pointed out the Olympics have been held in North America, Europe and Asia, never in a tropical country. Kudos to the IOC!! Way to go, Rio!!